Messaggioda umberto » 01/02/2007 - 15:33
Inserisco di seguito le varie possibilità di passaggio del turno, come si vede la sconfitta contemporanea di Aris e Napoli ha aperto nuovi scenari per la miglior sesta che a questo punto dovrebbe uscire dal gruppo B, in quanto nel gruppo della climamio non può uscire la miglior sesta:
Group B will end in thrilling fashion, even when Panathinaikos (11-2) has long since clinched first place and Union Olimpija (4-9) has no chance for the Top 16. Maccabi Elite Tel Aviv (7-6) or Joventut (7-6) will finish second. Maccabi will do so if it beats Panathinaikos in Tel Aviv, but otherwise Joventut will, win or lose. That's because if both Maccabi and Joventut lose, they will be joined in a tie by either Partizan (6-7) or Unicaja (6-7), who play each other in Week 14. Joventut has beaten both of those teams twice and by massive point differences (+40 vs. Partizan and +55 vs. Unicaja) that send it ahead in any three-way tiebreak situation. Joventut will be third to matter what if Maccabi wins. Maccabi, however, can also drop like a stone - all the way to fifth place. Maccabi lands in fourth place with a loss if Lottomatica (5-8), Partizan (6-7) and Joventut win their games. In that scenario only, Partizan would be third. Likewise, if Maccabi loses and Cibona (6-7), Joventut and Partizan win their respective games, a three-way tie for the third place would see Cibona third (2-2 +5), Partizan fourth (2-2 +2) and Maccabi fifth (2-2 -7). If it loses and Unicaja wins, however, Maccabi is at least third. Partizan will will finish fifth or better by beating Unicaja. If it doesn't, Partizan can only be sixth or worse. If Unicaja beats Partizan, it also advances to the Top 16, as it will finish at least fifth. There is a chance for Unicaja to advance if it loses, too, but it needs Lottomatica to beat Cibona. In that case, a three-way tie takes place for the fifth place in which Unicaja (3-1) would be fifth over Cibona (2-2) and Roma (3-1). Just like Partizan and Unicaja, Cibona qualifies with a victory, regardless of other results. It also has a chance if it loses by less than 14 points and Partizan downs Unicaja. In that case, Cibona would be fifth in a three-way tie with Roma and Partizan. Roma needs to win by at least 14 points and wait for Partizan to beat Unicaja. In that case, Roma would be fifth and would seal its ticket to the Top 16. If Roma doesn't win by at least 14, it has no chance to make it to the best five in this group. The best sixth-place qualifier across all groups also qualifies, but if three Group C teams win on Wednesday - Aris, Pau-Orthez and Napoli - no Group B team in sixth place will be able to match their seven victories
Group A comes to an end with first place already won by none other than Tau Ceramica (11-2), which will be one of the top-seeded teams in the Top 16 draw. Dynamo Moscow and Olympiacos share the second spot with 9-4 record records. Dynamo Moscow is guaranteed second place and top-seed status for the Top 16 Draw if it can defeat Efes Pilsen (8-5) in Istanbul. If Efes beats Dynamo and Olympiacos defeats end-of-the-table RheinEnergie (2-11), the Reds will be second and will join Tau, Panathinaikos and CSKA as top seeds in the next round. Since Dynamo beat Efes by 7 in Moscow, Efes will be third if it wins by at least 7 points and Olympiacos wins. Should Efes win and Olympiacos lose, however, then Efes would win the resulting three-way tie due to its 3-1 record against Dynamo and the Reds. Dynamo (2-2) would place third in that case and Olympiacos (1-3) fourth. Prokom (5-8) and Climamio (4-9) will fight for fifth place and the last Top 16 berth in this group. Le Mans (4-9) is a sure tiebreak loser due to its 0-2 record against the Polish League champs, but could still influence the race. Indeed, if Le Mans beats Tau on the road, Prokom will be fifth and advance even if it loses by 100, as it would win the three-way tie (3-1) against Climamio (2-2) and Le Mans (1-3). Climamio's only chance to advance is if Le Mans loses and it it beats Prokom in Sopot by at least 15 points. Prokom beat Climamio 77-91 in Bologna in what could prove to have been the pivotal game in this group.
Preferisco essere fortunato che avere talento.
