Baltimore (-10.5) @ 1.85 Eurobet
BALTIMORE –11 Miami 33.5
1-0-0/0-1-0 24-13
During the last week of the season teams that need to win usually face inflated lines and usually don’t come through with the cover. Those teams usually don’t come through with the cover if they are facing a team that can do something about it but I don’t see the Miami offense, with Sage Rosenfals at the helm, being able to do anything to dent the Baltimore defense. If the line was –10 or lower, Baltimore would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 160-98-7. With the line at –11, they don’t quite qualify in that situation. My numbers favor Baltimore by 12 and 7.5 points. At home this year, Baltimore has struggled against the two above average offenses they have faced, Kansas City and Cincinnati. Against average to below average defenses this year, Baltimore, at home, has won every game by at least 14 points and hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in any of those games. Baltimore has scored at least 24 points in all but one home game this year and Miami hasn’t scored more than 17 in any road game, with an average of just 13 per game against above average defenses. Baltimore has only allowed an average of 10 points against the really poor offenses they have faced this year. I don’t see Miami getting more than 10 points in this game and Baltimore should get at least 21 in this game and get the cover. BALTIMORE 27 MIAMI 10
New Orleans (+7.5)@ 1.95 Centrebet
Se interessa c'e' Pinna con Carolina @ 2.12
CAROLINA –8 New Orleans 46
4-5-0/4-5-0 16.7-22.9
This is one of those games where one team needs to win (actually both need to win) and the line is inflated. Unfortunately for Carolina, NO can do something about it and is getting great value in this game. While NO hasn’t had a good defense under Jim Haslett, they have thrived in the role of divisional underdog on the road and Haslett is now 9-0 ats as a road underdog of three or more, including 2-0 already this season. Meanwhile, John Fox plays it close to the vest and is just 6-11 ats as a home favorite in the regular season. NO qualifies in a terrific conference situation, which is 5-2 this year and now 114-44-4. Final numbers favor Carolina by nine points before accounting for the great situation, which is worth 4.5 points and makes this line closer to Carolina by only 4.5 points. That’s too much value with a head coach who knows how to compete in critical road games. CAROLINA 27 NEW ORLEANS 23
Cleveland(+10.5) @ 1.85 Eurobet
HOUSTON –9.5 Cleveland 39
No Past History
I simply don’t understand this line. I realize Cleveland is playing horrible football right now but Houston doesn’t deserve to be favored over anybody by almost 10 points. From the line of scrimmage, both teams are equal, with an advantage to Houston for the home field, but not enough to justify this line. I loved what Cleveland did last week with their dedication to the running game and they are going to do that again this week. Holcomb stands a good chance to be back at quarterback and that will help stabilize that position as well. Cleveland qualifies in one of my best situations, which is 96-27-2 and won with Houston against Jacksonville last week. I passed on that game because Jacksonville also qualified in a great situation but this situation knows when to play against teams due for a letdown and that is this game. Final numbers only favor Houston by nine and four points before the great situation. Cleveland also qualifies in my turnover table situation, which has been hot late in the year, and went 7-2-1 last week. Simply too many points and Cleveland has played a lot of good teams as of late. In fact they have only played six games (five teams) below .500 and lost all of them but one by 10 or less points. This game should be just as competitive. HOUSTON 24 CLEVELAND 21
Whashington (+4.5) @ 1.89 lordo BF
Minnesota –4 WASHINGTON 41
No Past History
We can sum this game up one way. Minnesota needs to win a big game. That usually means they will not win and if they don’t win the game they can’t cover the spread. Minnesota has only won 8 of their past 40 regular season road games by more than three points. The best Minnesota has done this season is to win by seven points on the road. Yes, that would be enough to get the cover in this game but I don’t see them being able to move the ball against a solid defense like Washington. Minnesota, against decent defenses on the road this year, has scored 14 at Chicago, 16 at Philly and 28 at Detroit based on two long scoring passes, which I believe Washington will take away this week. GB played more of a cover two in the second half last week and that took away the long pass play. In other words, Minnesota has averaged about 20 points per game on the road against better than average defenses, and this is the best defense they will face on the road this year. Meanwhile, Washington’s offense is better than Chicago’s, who the Vikings allowed to score 24 points and worse than Detroit, who the Vikings allowed to score 27 points. Washington averaged about 21 points at home against below average defenses this year and Minnesota may be the worse defense they have faced. Bottom line here is Washington should be able to score around 20-24 points in this game. Can Minnesota score 24-30 points, which may or may not allow them to cover this game? Washington has only allowed an average of 21 points per game against better than average offenses and I doubt Minnesota, who is averaging only 20 per game against good defenses, can get to the magic number of 24-27 to get the cover. Washington does qualify in a 77-37-5 fundamental rushing situation. I realize Portis isn’t playing in this game but against a Minnesota rush defense, that isn’t going to matter. Final numbers favor Washington by 1 and 1.5 points. This game also qualifies in an over situation, which is 83-50-2. Minnesota has allowed at least 24 points in every road game this year, while Washington hasn’t allowed more than 28 points in any game and that was only in two games all year against Green Bay and Philadelphia. Knowing Minnesota has allowed at least 24 and also scored at least 14 in every game, this game stands a good chance to go over the total as well. I’ll hold off on the total and make the side a best bet in a very good situation for Washington. WASHINGTON 24 MINNESOTA 20
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