Festival di Cheltenham 16-17-18 marzo

[ameba]

Domattina si parte !

Il giorno 17 sarò sul campo per assistere alla riunione comprendente il "Queen Mother Champion Chase" ed altre corse in siepi di primissimo livello .
Sarà  mio fedele compagno di viaggio dax , al quale tenterò di trasferire un po' di passione per i quadrupedi scalpitanti, non avendo egli, incomprensibilmente , ancora ricevuto il battesimo da scommettitore ippico.
Siamo in contatto anche con il londinese del forum ( Tobiasen ) per un incontro da fissare in orari compatibili con i suoi impegni di lavoro ( speriamo riesca a liberarsi per l' intera giornata del 17 ).

Invito cortesemente behra, noxxy ed altri esperti a postare qui i loro prono, in modo da poter formare una curva ippica a mo' di Bar del Tennis , tentando, nel contempo, di unire l' utile al dilettevole.

Spero di poter postare in albergo, altrimenti ci si ribecca al ritorno per il resoconto.

Ciaoooooooooooooooo !

[Dax]

In effetti trattasi di pura iniziazione al sacro mondo ippico, mi vergogno un po' a dirlo, visti alcuni mostri sacri come Tobiasen e il Behra.

Al ritorno saprò ragguagliarvi dettagliatamente, soprattutto cercherò di evitare probabili stirate personali e dello zio Ameba...

Ciao a tutti.

PS: Behra, occhio alle bimbe...

[noxxy]

In effetti trattasi di pura iniziazione al sacro mondo ippico, mi vergogno un po' a dirlo, visti alcuni mostri sacri come Tobiasen e il Behra.

Al ritorno saprò ragguagliarvi dettagliatamente, soprattutto cercherò di evitare probabili stirate personali e dello zio Ameba...

Ciao a tutti.

PS: Behra, occhio alle bimbe...

mi fà  molto piacere leggere Dax quì (che seguo sempre nelle mie giocate sul tennis), in mezzo a schizzi di fango, steccati e urla del parterre anche perchè potremo ricambiare con tante storte tutte le dritte che ci dà  nel tennis.

allo zio ameba dico che lo invidio molto, a chelt non ci sono mai stato, e che posterò qlk prima delle corse.

ciao ciao

p.s. ma come farai a bancare sul campo??

[behrajan]

i miei di oggi
1 brave inca preso ieri a 6 me lo tengo stretto
2 kicking king
3 sorpresa limerick boy poco esposto può fare almeno la piazza
4 marloborough ci sta e poi è il nome dell' hotel di dax e ameba (quasi quasi farei una telefonata con accento russo e chiederei del cavallaro italiano con la barba)
5 mondial jack tranquilli la quota calerà 
6 hidden bounty

non ho giocato nessun favoritop perprincipio anche se penso che brave inca lo diventerà  e netto

[behrajan]

per passare il tempo
qlc puntatina
a sedgefield bonnie parker

[mrcobra]

buongiorno a tutti oggi dopo parecchia assenza saro' in vostra compagnia ei nizio @ sedge con Squeeze Box poco win e molta piazza

[noxxy]

chi ho giocato:

15.00 Brave Inca 6.00 Bf e Cardenas 18.0 Bf

vi posto qlk nota che mi hanno inviato o trovata in rete:

THE 2004 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL
TUESDAY MARCH 16TH

2:00 Letheby & Christopher Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Class A) Grade 1 (4yo+)
2m½f
(2m110y)
Albuhera (2) 5 7/2 11/4 4 3 3 7/2 3 7/2 3 7/2 7/2 22/5
Brave Inca (13) 8 6 5 8 6 11/2 7 6 6 5 6 6 7
Mariah Rollins (65) 10 8 6 10 8 7 10 10 10 8 8 10 10
Cardenas (14) 8 8 12 12 10 9 12 10 10 8 10 10 14
Garde Champetre (39) 9 8 6 12 8 7 10 10 10 10 9 10 27/2
Fleet Street (34) 12 12 10 14 10 10 14 10 12 12 12 12 23/2
Royal Alphabet (83) 14 12 8 20 16 8 16 16 14 12 14 14 18
Bold Bishop (11) - - 14 10 12 10 10 14 12 16 20 12 24
Perle De Puce (80) 11 20 10 14 14 10 11 12 12 12 14 12 27/2
Zum See (6) 20 16 20 20 16 14 20 16 20 16 16 20 17
Watson Lake 20 20 20 20 25 20 16 25 20 25 20 20 159
The Opening race and a Championship race but for me this is the Worst Supreme
Novice I have ever seen.
I am treading very carefully in these Championship races all week. As I see things here
the Ground is going to be the key factor as the recent weather is likely to be enough to
ensure we don’t get fast ground. It could dry out fast during the week but I can see it
starting Dead ground on Tuesday and I am anticipating that it dries out as per normal
during the week. If that does not happen then you need to interpret that and understand
that this preview was written days in advance and no amount of work can conquer
changing conditions.
People are saying that the Irish have their poorest crop of novice hurdlers in a number of
years. The evidence is backed up in last years Festival Bumper when the Irish challenge
was decimated and well beaten and they haven’t got anything decent coming through.
This year the main Irish Challenge comes in the shape of Brave Inca, John Oliver,
Mariah Rollins and Royal Alphabet. This is a Championship race and it is usually won
by a Championship horse and although as it is such a bad renewal I am not certain but I
am happy to concentrate only on horses that won their last race just as the last 7 have
done. I don’t want to cut any horse some slack if they have not achieved that on their
latest start and that rules out Watson Lake, Garde Champetre, Kadount and Mariah
Rollins. I will start off with some Negatives.
Negatives
Royal Alphabet has chances from Willie Mullins who won this race in 1995. There is a
lot to like about this horse and he is statistically strong in many areas. He was
disappointing in last years Festival Bumper but he Scoped Badly after the race and I am
happy to forgive him that as he was the Stable Number 1 from 4 entrants that day and he
is a Flat Bred horse who is unbeaten in his sole start over hurdles. Willie Mullins
deliberately gave him this long break and wanted to run him straight here so he could
avoid all the soft ground we have seen in recent weeks and that may well pay off. The
Hurdle he won back in September was from a horse that won his next 3 starts and if he
gets the Good ground he needs I can see him running way above his current price. I
resisted a strong urge to Tip Royal Alphabet earlier in the season but I am worried about
his lack of experience over hurdles. He has only had 1 run over Hurdles and that was a
penalty kick and the demands of a fast run race at pace over these fences will expose any
flaws with his jumping. No Recent winners came here with just 1 race in the season that
they won the race and that does worry me about him. Garde Champetre is not for me
either on any number of levels. I don’t like the fact he comes here off a defeat but he is
another National Hunt horse Bred horse and an embryonic chaser and I just feel that he
will lack the raw speed to win and will be a better horse next year. Mariah Rollins is a
horse that I am not worried to oppose. It’s not the fact that she is a Mare as they have a
great record in the race but she is not flat bred and that for me is a key aspect to the race.
In recent years Flat Bred horses have dominated. Going back 12 years there have been
11 National Hunt Bred horse that started favourite for this race and all have been beaten
apart from the 2002 winner. Flat Bred horses have won the remained of the renewals if
you ignore the fact that last years winner (Back In Front) can claim to be from a Dual
Flat/Jumps Sire. Mariah Rollins is a National Hunt Bred horse out of a 3m Chasing Sire
and surely might lack the speed to win this and she was beaten last time out. Bold Bishop
is a Negative as well. I don’t like him. He is bred for further. His Sire has a Midlands
Grand National winner to his portfolio and I think this trip will catch him out. He is more
of a chasing type and his connections have questioned his “gutsâ€

[behrajan]

cominciamo bene jockey capovolto

[Bobas]

Buongiorno a tutti.
Un saluto particolare ad Ameba e Dax in "trasferta"

[$teve777]

buongiorno cavallari

mi gioco qualche 10 euro per puro divertimento seguendo il mercato

gamblelandedlive segnala che la radiocronaca di sedge si può seguire su http://wms.teamtalk.com/racingradio

[mrcobra]

Ladies Knight w/p

[Bobas]

Never Without Me W/P

[noxxy]

ho bancato il fava(thist) a 4.00 Bf e ho messo qlk di Colca Canyon a 21.0 Bf

2:40 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Class A) Grade 1 (5yo+)
2m
Thisthatandtother 11/4 9/4 9/4 2 5/2 9/4 9/4 2 9/4 2 5/2 5/2 9/4 5/2 27/10
Kicking King 3 7/2 10/3 10/3 7/2 3 10/3 4 7/2 7/2 7/2 3 10/3 7/2 37/10
Caracciola 9 10 7 8 9 8 8 - 8 9 9 9 8 9 19/2
Well Chief 8 7 8 8 13/2 8 7 10 9 8 9 9 8 9 9
Central House 10 10 10 12 11 10 10 10 10 12 11 7 10 11 12
Our Armageddon 11 10 10 12 10 8 10 10 12 10 11 10 10 11 23/2
Palua 25 25 25 20 25 25 20 16 25 25 25 25 22 25 27
Colca Canyon 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 25 18
Keltic Bard 20 20 20 25 25 20 25 33 20 25 25 25 28 25 29
Le Duc 25 25 33 25 25 20 16 16 33 25 25 20 25 25 35
Royaleety 25 20 33 25 20 20 25 25 33 25 25 25 28 25 35
Puntal 40 50 50 50 50 50 50 40 50 50 50 50 40 50 64
The Arkle is a 2 mile race always run at a very fast pace and jumping sorts the men out
from the boys. There are many races at the Festival that although fascinating to watch
that you cant really sort out with Full confidence. This is one of them. The Problem I find
is that most horses have not emptied their tanks and have been brought along slowly ,
improving as they go with the aim to peak on the day and you are basically betting on
which horse jumps the best and performs on the day. There is very little point finding
a horse that has 3lbs in Hand of the opposition in this race as One Mistake at a fence can
render that irrelevant and you can lose any advantage you have in speed and class
through mistakes, tactics, pace of the race and Fallers. I think some races have a
Percentage Luck Factor that is more significant than the edge you can gain by studying
the form of the main runners prior to the race. That’s why I don’t propose to get heavily
involved in this race and am saving my weapons for other races. The Average Arkle
rarely provides shocks and it should pay to stay with the First half dozen in the betting
forecast. That does not help us too much though. Thisthatandtother has been a horse
that I felt I would be opposing all year in the race. Statisticians do have plenty to get their
teeth into by opposing him. After all (Moscow Flyer aside) you don’t see many 8 year old
winners of this race , but I have to admit that he has slowly won me over with his
Ruthless navigation of his fences and his powerful galloping and he looks a class act. He
would not be a horse that I would contemplate betting at his price though. He may be the
best horse in the race, and he may work at home like a Champion but that’s not taking
into account any improvement other horses make in the race and that could be immense.
Ask Yourselves this question. There are 12 fences to jump.
Would you bet Thisthatandtother at 1/12 to jump each fence? Would you have £120 on
him to win a tenner that he jumps all 12 fences without coming down? I don’t think I
would as there are many other traffic issues and other fallers that can impede even the
most fluent jumper. So If the price of 1/12 to jump each fence is Correct and he has 12
fences, you could argue (Admittedly in a rather simplistic way) that he is roughly 13/8 to
jump round. That’s an 12 bet accumulator at each fence! Obviously the price of 1/12
might be wrong, but I bet its Ball Park Area. That 12 fence accumulator comes to £2.61
to a £1 stake which makes him Over 6/4 to safely jump the fences. So for me taking a
price about 3/1 is too short in a race like this as he is odds against to finish the race on
that basis and that price you have not even factored in any of the other runners who might
beat him on merit . I know my Arguments are far from mathematically sound and John
Nash would not be impressed but it is an interesting way of looking at his chance. I am
aware that the better he jumps and further he goes the shorter the 1/12 price would be at
each fence but I think I have priced it up at very short odds at each fence. Don’t get me
wrong, I think he will jump round and nobody will lay to 13/8 that he does, but my point
is simply that there is a right price and a wrong price for every horse and for me he is a
wrong price. Even if he does jump round he still has to beat the Opposition and he
finished behind some of these at last years Festival in the Supreme Novice .That, his
price and his weak statistical profile and the “Luck Factorâ€

[mrcobra]

ottima piazza [/b]

[Bobas]

Buona piazza