Aikenite
Strengths: Somewhat progressive form. He's had two, two-race form patterns this year, improving in his second start both times. But now he makes the third start of his current form pattern, and last year at 2, that was the time he produced his peak effort, a fine second of 14 to Noble's Promise in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. He also is a relatively fresh horse, with two more weeks to prep for this spot than anyone coming out of the Derby.
Weaknesses: Two big questions - Is he good enough, and does he really want to go this far? Aikenite's two best saw him finish second in the Breeders' Futurity to Noble's Promise, who could do no better than fifth in the Kentucky Derby, and to Hurricane Ike in the Derby Trial, a race far less deep than anything on the Triple Crown. He was beaten by Jackson Bend when third in the Fountain of Youth, and Jackson Bend has yet to step to the head of the class, either. Aikenite has lost ground to the leader between the stretch call and the finish in three of his four two-turn starts, and he showed little late spark in his lone start beyond 1 1/16 miles, the nine-furlong Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. His sire, Yes Its True, was a sprinter. The Preakness might be pushing Aikenite's distance limitations.
Strategy: Since pressing a sprint pace in his career debut, Aikenite has settled into a stalking-closing style that his rider figures to employ in the Preakness. He has decent acceleration, and probably will make a middle move for position into the stretch.
Value: Hard to see him not offering decent value if you fancy his chances. He was 6-1 in an eight-horse Derby Trial, and hardly is a talking horse going into the second leg of the Triple Crown. Have to think odds over 20-1 will be had.
Caracortado
Strengths: Caracortado is fresh and training well since recovering from a foot abscess that would have precluded a Kentucky Derby start regardless of earnings. Though not quick, his forwardly placed running style suits a Preakness without much speed. Caracortado is seasoned (5 for 7), and finished a creditable fourth six weeks ago in the Santa Anita Derby despite being stopped on the far turn. He faced adversity, and ran well. Trainer Mike Machowsky won the Grade 1 Pimlico Special (Southern Image) in 2004; regular jockey Paul Atkinson has never ridden at Pimlico.
Weaknesses: It is questionable if Caracortado is fast enough. His best speed figure (98 Beyer) is well short of the Preakness par (110). Furthermore, none of the horses that recently finished in front of him returned to distinguish themselves; even his visually impressive Grade 2 victory in February has been exposed. Lastly, most Preakness winners were either Derby runners or fast (triple-digit Beyer) horses that skipped the first leg. Caracortado is neither.
Strategy: The best efforts by Caracortado have been from a forward position. But in the Santa Anita Derby, he did not establish early position and then got stopped on the far turn. Caracortado must use his speed. Fresh from a six-week layoff, in a race likely to unfold at a modest pace, Caracortado should be forwardly placed in the first four positions.
Value: Questions surround the California-bred gelding, who began his career in $40,000 maiden claimer at the Los Angeles County Fair. Is he good enough? Not yet. Can he deliver a top effort first start back from a layoff? Probably, yes. But a lack of established Grade 1 class and below-par speed figures make Caracortado a borderline contender and probably not worth a win bet at less than 20-1. On the other hand, his early speed and high odds make him worth consideration in vertical wagers, under logical contenders.
Dublin
Strengths: A Grade 1 winner at 2 in the Hopeful, he has kept some of the best company of any 3-year-old this year. He was second to Conveyance in the Grade 3 Southwest, third behind Lookin At Lucky and Noble's Promise in the Rebel, third behind Line of David and Super Saver in the Arkansas Derby, and seventh most recently in the Kentucky Derby. Although unable to keep up with Super Saver in the Derby, he rallied respectably to lose by just 7 1/2 lengths over a sloppy track that he may not have liked as much as others. Garrett Gomez, the Eclipse Award-winning jockey of 2007 and 2008, replaces Terry Thompson.
Weaknesses: He has not won in six starts since the Hopeful, and he has been prone to wide trips and trouble. A midpack closer, he doesn't have the speed to get a good early position, or late-closing kick that would allow him to blow past the field in the stretch. So he often has to make a half-mile rally, often resulting in being wide on the second turn. He has also never run faster than a 97 Beyer Speed Figure, placing him behind several key contenders in the race in terms of Beyers.
Strategy: He was farther off the pace than expected in the Derby, 17 lengths behind early, partially a result of the hot early pace. Look for Gomez to keep him more in touch with the leaders, likely within six to eight lengths of the pace.
Value: Expect him to drop from his 20-1 Derby odds to perhaps 8-1 or 10-1, with the addition of the popular Gomez and starting for five-time Preakness winner D. Wayne Lukas.
First Dude
Strengths: He's been rating just off the pace of late but he has good early foot, and the lack of speed in this Preakness field means he could have a big tactical edge, especially if he's unpressured in the opening stages. He's a fresh horse, away since the April 10 Blue Grass Stakes, and he's certainly worked well in the interim, turning in bullet works at Churchill. His last couple of Beyers on dirt are the best figures of his short career, and that includes in the Florida Derby where he encountered traffic trouble.
Weaknesses: He has only the maiden win to his credit, and he's yet to even win around two turns. His Beyers have been on an ever-so-slight decline, and it may not be a coincidence that this has developed as the distances have gotten longer - and the competition has gotten better. Even if he rebounds in terms of Beyers, his best figures are too light to win a race of this magnitude. He's lost ground late in his last couple of races, and he's trying to go farther than he's ever gone in the Preakness.
Strategy: With enough early speed to get into contention in a race lacking pace, he would benefit from a forward trip. In fact, he could even shake loose early. He's proven that he doesn't need the lead, but since many of his rivals will be looking to close late, he should use his speed to his best advantage.
Value: A big price is likely, since his Beyers are light and he's unproven against this caliber, but a pace advantage would move him way up. He's worth using underneath in exotics.
Jackson Bend
Strengths: He tries hard and has fired almost every time, with the solitary exception of his 12th-place finish in the Derby. That finish could at least be partially attributable to a less-than-perfect trip (he had to check nearing the stretch) and his first encounter with a sloppy track he might not have been comfortable on. He twice finished second to Eskendereya, who was by far the dominant member of his generation in the run up to the Triple Crown.
Weaknesses: He was beaten a long way in those seconds to Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial and Fountain of Youth, and while the traffic trouble he encountered in the Derby did not happen at a good time, it's hard to envision that it cost him a significantly better finish position. Although he has run well over several tracks, the fact remains he has won only at Calder Race Course. And while he was once close - a narrowly beaten second in the Holy Bull in his first start this year - it is also a fact that he has yet to win a graded stakes.
Strategy: Usually sits in easy striking position just off the pace, but is handy enough to be more of a pace factor should the pace be slow. His running style, which is similar to that of Derby winner Super Saver, often makes for good trips.
Value: Was one of many in the Derby who were in the 20-1 to 30-1 range. It's unlikely he's built much of a constituency since, so he's not a bad use underneath in exotics at what should be a good price.
Lookin' At Lucky
Strengths: Lookin At Lucky was the country's outstanding 2-year-old, winning 5 of 6 and the Eclipse Award. In 2010, he has been merely decent. Compromised by trouble every start, he won a Grade 2 and finished third in a Grade 1 prior to his sixth-place debacle in the Kentucky Derby. Lookin At Lucky is consistent, seasoned (6 for 9), and repeatedly has run well against adversity. Martin Garcia replaces Garrett Gomez, creating a hot trainer-jockey combination. Bob Baffert and Garcia have won at a 31-percent clip (40 for 128) the past year.
Weaknesses: It remains unknown if Lookin At Lucky is fast enough. His career-high 98 Beyer Figure is well below the 110 par for the Preakness. Furthermore, Lookin At Lucky has been banged around plenty in three roughly run races this year - jumped heels at Oaklawn, steadied at Santa Anita, and roughed up at Churchill Downs. How much punishment can one horse take? Was the trouble a matter of being in the wrong place at the wrong time, or is Lookin At Lucky not quick enough to extricate himself from trouble?
Strategy: The strategy with his new jockey is simple - avoid trouble. Lookin At Lucky eventually may get a clean trip, and when he does, it will be his first of the year. While post position will influence strategy, Lookin at Lucky is not quick. In order to win, he must settle, rally wide in the clear, and finish. Lookin At Lucky will need to be lucky to win from behind.
Value: The bandwagon is emptying. Lookin At Lucky started at a surprisingly high 6.30-1 in the Derby. His odds should be at least that high for the Preakness. But for a horse whose speed figures are below par, and with a running style that places him at a disadvantage, a fair price would be 10-1.
Northern Giant
Strengths: Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won 13 Triple Crown races, including five editions of the Preakness Stakes. This colt has clearly improved as a 3-year-old, and that may be because he's gotten better as the distances have gotten longer. His tactical speed should help him gain position, and that could prove to be a big plus since there's not a great deal of early zip in this field. Also, that big maiden win in the slop at Oaklawn indicates he handles a wet track.
Weaknesses: He was more than 14 lengths behind Super Saver in the Arkansas Derby, with no apparent excuse. His Beyers have steadily declined since his easy maiden score - the only victory of his career - which came over a sloppy track. He's lost all three of his starts against winners, and he had favorable trips and set-ups in each of those races. There's no guarantee he even gets that kind of ideal set-up in the Preakness, and this is the toughest field he's faced yet.
Strategy: His best races have come when he's been close to the pace, and there's not a lot of speed in this Preakness. His best shot seems to be to secure forward positioning and get the jump on the closers.
Value: The poor effort in his latest should translate to a big price in the Preakness. He might be able to hang on for a share if the pace is controlled, as expected. He's one to consider for the bottom of exotics.
Paddy O'Prado
Strengths: Finishing third in the Kentucky Derby, ahead of 17 opponents, is definitely something his connections can be proud of. His Derby performance was the best performance of his career, by far. While that could raise the "fluke" flag for some, there is also a sense that his Derby was quite possibly the breakthrough many 3-year-olds experience this time of year, and a signal of better performances to come.
Weaknesses: The fear is his big effort in the Derby was aided by the sloppy track, the same kind of surface on which he recorded a five-furlong workout eight days before the Derby that attracted so much attention. He was beaten only a neck for second in the Derby by Ice Box, who had a horrible trip. He has won only once in his life, in the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes on turf at Gulfstream in early March. He has yet to win on dirt, and has yet to even perform on a fast dirt track.
Strategy: The combination of the big field and the strong early fractions in the Derby caused him to come from well off the pace. Even though he contested a solid pace when he won the Palm Beach, his fine finish position in the Derby is strong evidence that he's most effective as a closer.
Value: Whether it was because of his eye-popping final workout before the Derby, or just really weird Derby win betting in general, he was a drastic underlay at Churchill at 12-1. His good finish in the Derby means he won't be a bargain this time, either.
Pleasant Prince
èb]Strengths:[/b] Obviously stacks up well on ability, based on a solid closing effort to miss in a head-bob finish against Ice Box in the Florida Derby. The Beyer Figure of 99 he earned for that performance represented a career best, and he has never taken a backward step by the numbers when racing on fast dirt tracks. With six races under his belt this year - four of them at 1 1/8 miles, including another close second to Ice Box, and two at one mile - he definitely won't be a short horse.
Weaknesses: He just doesn't win very often. His maiden win came by a mere half-length, and two subsequent losses to Ice Box were close finishes as well, so perhaps he has a strong herd instinct. As a $30,000 yearling buy, he has already won back his purchase price more than seven times over, so how much more upside can reasonably be expected?
Strategy: He was up close early, dropped back a bit approaching the far turn, and came again when beaten a half-length by Ice Box in one of the stronger first-level allowances at Gulfstream Park over the winter. Since then, however, he has been dropping far back - a problematic running style in two-turn routes with big fields at Pimlico. It's not like he's never shown early speed, though: he actually had the lead after the first quarter-mile second time out in a sprint as a 2-year-old.
Value: He was 29-1 and ran huge in the Florida Derby, and will likely be boxcar odds again in the wake of form-darkening races in the Blue Grass on Polytrack and a muddy renewal of the Derby Trial. Those who look for positive speed-figure patterns may view him as circling back around to another peak race.
Schoolyard Dreams
Strengths: Has shown flashes of brilliance at 3 and he's been relatively consistent with only Eskendereya managing to really run away from him in his four tries this season. Finished in front of Derby winner Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby despite arguably moving a bit too soon. Has displayed some ability to rate. The time off since his last race, the Wood, figures do serve him well, and he continues to impress railbirds in the morning with a series of sharp works.
Weaknesses: Has lost ground from the eighth pole to the wire in his last three starts, and there could be some question as to his distance limitations. Beyer Figures don't measure up to the top ones in this lineup. He figures to need far and away a career best effort to grab any share here.
Strategy: Connections felt he moved too soon in the Tampa Bay Derby, so he was taken back to last in the Wood and had no real kick. Has the speed to be a forward factor, but would envision him rating somewhere in mid-pack and trying to make a move as the field approaches the stretch.
Value: The price figures to be generous, 25-1 or better, and perhaps a share of the exotics would be a possibility if everything broke his way from a trip and pace standpoint.
Super Saver
Strengths: Consistency has been his main attribute as he's yet to run a bad race in seven starts. A wet surface obviously moves him way up. Beyer Figures continue to move in the right direction, which indicates he's on top of his game. He also proved in the Derby his ability to rate from off the pace and win, perhaps the biggest question mark he faced coming into that race. Calvin Borel fits him like a glove.
Weaknesses: Hard to find many chinks in Derby winner's arsenal. Does wheel back on just two weeks' rest for the first time and this will be his fourth start in only nine weeks, which could prove a bit taxing for a young horse. Never runs a poor one, although appears to be at his very best at Churchill Downs and over a wet surface, so perhaps there is some question about whether he'll repeat his Derby effort if presented with a fast track at Old Hilltop.
Strategy: Don't see many surprises here as long as the post position draw doesn't affect things too much. Envision him trying to duplicate his trip in the Derby, angling right to the rail and attempting to rate from mid-pack about a half-dozen lengths off the leaders.
Value: Was overbet and undervalued on the wet-track/Borel factor Derby Day, and may actually go postward a little higher price in the Preakness than a runaway Derby winner normally might, especially if the track comes up fast on Saturday. Wouldn't expect to see him go off at less than 2-1 under those conditions.
Yawanna Twist
Strengths: He's never been worse than second, and is already competitive in terms of Beyer Figures based on runner-up finishes in the Gotham and Illinois Derby. Many lightly raced horses will improve after a pair-up of new top figures - which is essentially what he did by running a 96 and a 94 in those races. He has a versatile running style, having rallied from the rear half of the field in the Gotham before pressing the early pace in the Illinois Derby. It has been five weeks since his last start, and he has trained regularly during that time, so he comes in fresh and fit for Rick Dutrow, who saddled Big Brown to a win the Preakness two years ago.
Weaknesses: Came up short to Awesome Act in the Gotham and American Lion in the Illinois Derby, and wasn't exactly flattered when those two ran 11th and 19th in the Kentucky Derby. After he lost ground to American Lion through a final three-eighths in a moderate 38 seconds, there is some question whether he can stretch out to 1 3/16 miles in a tougher spot, particularly in view of his pedigree. His sire, Yonaguska, was at his best going seven furlongs or shorter; his dam, Twist and Pop, never raced past 1 1/16 miles. He is eligible for second-level allowance conditions against New York-breds.
Strategy: He has tactical speed, a trait that should enable him to secure decent early position. The $64 question is whether he can keep pace when the real running starts.
Value: He was second choice in the Gotham and favored in the Illinois Derby, but he will be 20-1 or better in the Preakness. Dutrow has stated he'd be thrilled with a second-place finish, so it may be prudent to accent any plays more heavily in the back-up positions of exotics.
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questa la bella presentazione del Daily Racing Form
l'anno scorso andò cosi:
and the filly...
e questo il Kentucky Derby 2010:
.... LOOKIN AT LUCKY è la mia scelta.
