Messaggioda MoneyOnTennis » 30/04/2009 - 12:49
2009-04-30
Juan Monaco (1.60) vs Marin Cilic (2.60):
Pick: Juan Monaco ML
Stake: 9/10
Odds: 1.60
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
H2H: Cilic leads 1:0 (2008 Hard)
Monaco yesterday has won a big battle against Murray, of course this last one has not played to the best, but anyway the Argentine has been really solid for all the match playing on a very high intensity, not of course all the games to the same level but still reaching an incredible result for him and playing as usual on the baseline trying to make the point with both blows and not waiting the error as a classic clay court player.
Cilic also won a not easy match against Rochus, that when is in shape as on this tournament is not really easy to face, last week in Barcelona lost just to Nadal and in Monte-Carlo forced to the illness to Lisnard, but the Croatian has not still played really amazing, seen that when he is risking and playing the point is a very tough player to play also on clay, but when he has to move himself and to fight on a defensive way he shows all the limits that he still has on this surface and against a solid player as Monaco this could be really a problem for him, because to think to win a match just taking risks and making winners is not so easy on a surface as this one.
The match later after beating a champion as Murray often is not really easy, but Monaco is in confidence and to play Cilic on the 1/8 of finals on a such good tournament as this one is a very huge chance for him and I think that if they will play on the same way as last weeks/days I see really as huge fav on this match Monaco and imho his value is not over 1/2.
Stanislas Wawrinka (1.86) vs Juan Martin Del Potro (2.20):
Pick: Stanislas Wawrinka ML
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.86
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
H2H: Wawrinka leads 2:0 (2008 Grass)
Stanislas Wawrinka last year was runner up here and has begun this season on clay playing really so good and doing great performances especially in Monte-Carlo where he lost a tough semi final against a very good Djokovic, also here on these two first rounds has played really well and he seems really on a such good confidence, playing with his superb backhand and not bad also with the forehand that normally is his worse blow.
Juan Martin Del Potro has not begun so good the season on clay, losing to Ljubicic in Monte-Carlo and also yesterday not doing really a good performance against Troicki, both on clay not really top players and playing maybe on their worser surface to play. Del Potro is not so solid as the last part of the last year, he doesn't seems also on a very good physical conditions and he did till now too many errors on these two matches to be competitive with the top players on a surface as clay.
What to say, right now I see the two players really on a different state of shape and confidence, playing on a very different way and for a lot of reasons I believe that Wawrinka is the wide fav on this one and 1.80 as now is really too much, a line as Monaco-Cilic would have been more fair with huge respect of course to Del Potro, that is a great player but right now not on a great moment, just that... anyway to that odds forced to go with the favorite.
Fernando Gonzalez (1.22) vs Jurgen Melzer (5.37):
H2H: Melzer leads 2:1 (2007 Clay - Gonzalez)
Fernando Gonzalez is really so close to play his best tennis career on clay, he is showing a great moment of shape doing very solid performance with both blows and not only with the forehand as often happened for him and also mentally is very focuses on the match showing a great confidence too.
Melzer after some week is back to the win and yesterday the Austrian had a big surprise defeating Nikolay Davydenko in straight sets, playing really not bad, even if the Russian was far away to a decent performance with a big number of really stupid unforced errors and also serving pretty bad.
If Gonzalez will go on playing on the same way I don't find any analysis to let us think that the player of Chile could be low around 1.20 as there's now.
Novak Djokovic (1.21) vs Tommy Robredo (5.56):
H2H: Djokovic leads 4:1 (2008 Hard)
Defending champion here in Rome Novak Djokovic had not an easy second round(first match for him) against Albert Montanes, playing not almost to the same level for all the match and having a very tough first set where he has been down a break and on the tiebreaks too, anyway on clay this season he is doing really very good, has begun the season having such a good result as runner up in Monte-Carlo defeated in three hard sets from Nadal and also here he has a lot of motivations on doing good and a great confidence too.
Tommy Robredo is not playing on the last weeks as in February on the South American clay tour where he won two tournaments but is still winning matches and also yesterday he has not been perfect, but Kohlschreiber has missed too many chances on the second set as a break up and 5:3 leading on the tiebreak where he lost four points in a row with three unforced errors.
Credits of course to Robredo that is such a great fighter, but so the first real player that he will face he will go back imho easily at home and today I think that there will be that day, no way seen how the Spanish is playing to estimate Djokovic higher then 1.20 on this one.
Gilles Simon (1.38 ) vs Mischa Zverev (3.63):
H2H: First Meeting
French man Gilles Simon yesterday had a very tough match against last Italian hope Fabio Fognini, he didn't really played a great tennis and he is of course not on his best shape as on the OZ Open or so, but at least he is a fighter and as usual is very solid on the baseline game and I think that today Simon is going to play the perfect player for him, seen that he is really so good on the returns and passing shoots and Zverev is a very offensive player that bases his game on the service and volley too and here on clay especially when you are serving is not a really easy thing to and the breaks that he had against Berdych and Mathieu are of course showing it, even if of course he has won such two great matches for him against two crazy players as Berdych and Mathieu that both were leading easily or so the match and they finally lost not on the same way but on the same style of course.
Credits to Zverev for what he had till now, but so I see as winner Simon on this one for a lot of characteristics and around 1.40 should be maybe also too much imho.
Roger Federer (1.24) vs Radek Stepanek (5.50):
H2H: Federer leads 7:2 (2008 Hard)
Stepanek is still a very strange and tough player to play on clay, he has not the right characteristics to play extremely well on this surface, but match by match is always improving and improving, playing really solid especially with the backhand varying the game and serving pretty well that are his best characteristics. Yesterday he had two matches, earlier a very tough one against Serra, where both played a very great match and later an easy one against Lopez, that on this kind of surface is not really a top to face, but anyway still seen the conditions a great win too.
Federer isn't more the same player as two years ago or so, but is still a very respectable player and also if on the same tournament as this one last year the Czech had a big surprise defeating Federer, I don't think that there will be a lot of chances to respeat that amazing result. Also here there's about 1.20-1.25 and nobody will offer you more because it seems the real value of the fav.
Fernando Verdasco (1.43) vs Richard Gasquet (3.25):
H2H: Gasquet leads 4:2 (2009 Hard - Verdasco)
Verdasco isn't more right now the same player as the begun of the year, since about two weeks isn't playing with the same intensity and regularity and also yesterday had really a bad match against Fish, that although he has beat Andreev is not really a top player on this surface. Gasquet instead is back to the right way on this tournament, but yesterday he had two very close match and is physically then mentally could be not really easy for him to recover from those matches and to play another tough match the day later against a player as Verdasco and another problem too for the French is that he is playing too much defensively and with an offensive player as Verdasco this could be really dangerous, so in a normal match a line as this one could have been also too wide, but seen the conditions maybe is also here the right one.
Rafael Nadal (1.12) vs Robin Soderling (8.45):
H2H: Nadal leads 2:0 (2007 Grass)
What to say... of course Nadal has more chances to lose against a player as Soderling that will risk the match then a normal solid player without winners as Seppi, but so I think that nobody is believing that this kind of Nadal on clay can lose on the court against Soderling, as yesterday Will Nadal be injured on this match? No 1.03 Yes 33.50
Sincerely,
MoneyOnTennis
di Melzer , uscendo Scozia il quarto s'è spalancato e Manona se regge dovrebbe approfittarne , insomma con Chardy e Tipsa è riuscito a controllare agevolmente, ma Jurghenzio dovrebbe opporre resistenza consona almeno a fiammate, e se Manona accusa un tantinello il periodo non è detto che non perda
c'è Ruggero sotto20% e io Stepanek lo appoggio.
merita un tentativo, il ragioniere su terra fa davvero poco male e il tentativo bisogna farlo. il resto lo passo.
