PM figures in the Racing Port are Postmark figures, a proprietary handicap
mark if you like.
OR is the official handicap rating that the British Horseracing Board
handicapper has assessed a horse as, and it's this mark that determines
which races a horse may enter and what weight it will carry in handicap
races, no other. A horse runs three times before qualifying for a handicap
mark. The official handicapper assesses a horse's merit - in pounds - each
time it runs in a race, reassessing it upwards or downwards according to how
it performs.
TS is the Post's Topspeed mark for a horse - all these figures (PM, OR, TS)
are in units of lbs weight - a figure derived by Dave Edwards (successor to
James Willoughby) from analysing final time (the time the race was run in)
vis-a-vis standard time (the time a horse carrying x amount of weight, given
equable conditions, ought to be able to run over a particular distance at
this track) plus an allowance (which can be -ve) for ground conditions, plus
maybe a wind allowance, plus weight carried (-ve or +ve) and for the
runners behind, a -ve distance value (3lbs per length if it's a sprint is
the official handicapper's method of assessment, Topspeed and other time
analysts may vary).
You can use the three different figures to estimate whether the official
handicap mark belies or overstates a horse's ability. Where the postmark
is, say, 10lbs above the OR, and the TS figure, relative to the other horses
in the race, is high, the OR may belie the horse's ability. If the
OR belies a horse's ability it is well-in at the weights; if the other, the
horse is effectively running under a penalty. The official handicapper
doesn't use final times of races to grade each horse, he makes an
interpretation based on which horse beat whom by what distance. In a slowly
run race, therefore, the horse who finishes second may get reassessed more
than is fair due to his proximity to the winner, when he might have finished
farther back in a more evenly run race. Here, the Topspeed figure can tell
you whether a horse's last race, say, was a truly run affair (and whether
the final time was up to much). What's a good TS? Hmmm, it may be best for
now to look at the runners and spot the relatively high figure. A figure of
90 would catch the eye as being at least Listed class; a figure of 120 is
right at the top of the tree, but usually we're talking about the range 30
to 70. A Postmark is a more singular OR, basically, but, for purposes of
brevity, think of it as a check on the OR.
ciao ciao
