Drosselmeyer
Strengths: Well regarded from Day 1, he sold for $600,000 as a yearling, and the son of Distorted Humor keeps threatening to be a good horse. He was beaten less than two lengths in the Risen Star, his first start in a graded stakes and the only time he has ever finished out of the money. He then finished third in the Louisiana Derby after breaking from post 13. After being excluded from the Kentucky Derby because of insufficient graded stakes earnings, he was beaten six lengths by Fly Down in the Dwyer. He spotted the field a couple of lengths at the break and lacked room behind the first flight midway around the turn. Bill Mott-trained horses are entered in the Belmont Stakes for a reason, not the season. His last starter, Vision and Verse, finished second by a head at 54-1 in the 1999 running.
Weaknesses: After appearing uncomfortable in his post-Dwyer gallops, it was discovered he had bruised the frogs on his front hooves. He wore two bar shoes while completing his final training preparations, including Monday's five-furlong workout.
Strategy: Though he has been a bit one-paced in his last three races, that kind of running style can actually be a positive attribute in the Belmont Stakes. If he settles into a rhythmic beat and expends his energy evenly, he may find a sweet spot just off the pacesetters and ahead of the late runners.
Value: If you liked him in the Dwyer at 7-10, you're almost committed to going back for another try at 12-1 on the morning line. And should the rains come, note he has a very high Tomlinson rating (421) for wet tracks, and his most impressive performance as a 2-year-old was a six-length maiden score on a "good" track at Churchill Downs.
Dave In Dixie
Strengths: Umm, well…He won his maiden decently in Southern California, but that was last summer. On synthetic. Sprinting. His closing second early this year in the Lewis, a route, was not bad. But Caracortado was in front of him, American Lion just behind, and neither has moved to the head of this class. Has been well bet throughout career, and fetched $310,000 at a 2-year-old auction despite not having a strong immediate family, both facts suggesting he is an impressive work horse. Is it possible he has yet to translate morning flash to afternoon cash? The barn is aces.
Weaknesses: Still eligible for an entry-level allowance. Has done little to suggest he is among the best horses of his generation, worthy of classic consideration. His lone start on dirt produced the worst performance of his career.
Strategy: Has come from off the pace in all his races, and figures to sit mid-pack going 12 furlongs.
Value: Not much that I can see. Going strictly by his on-paper form, he should be 100-1, but is unlikely to go postward at more than 30-1 off a 20-1 morning line, and with Borel named to ride.
First Dude
Strengths: Tactical speed and consistency. First Dude has hit the board in six of seven starts and has shown he can race effectively on the lead, as he did when second in the Preakness, or from a pressing or stalking position. That kind of sustained speed should serve him well in the Belmont, which tends to reward horses who are prominently placed but not overly keen. His style should also give him a greater possibility for a favorable trip in a large field. His heart also distinguishes him as a top-class horse. He gave Lookin At Lucky all he wanted in the Preakness, and Lookin At Lucky really didn't push past him until the final 70 yards.
Weaknesses: Coming off his best effort in the Preakness, a race in which he ran a 101 Beyer Speed Figure, 11 points higher than his prior top, he is at risk of a bounce. That risk is compounded by a relatively quick return on three weeks' rest and going Belmont's taxing 1 1/2-mile distance. He also has just one win and has finished behind Belmont foe Fly Down in a couple of head-to-head matchups.
Strategy: In what looked like a paceless Preakness, he went to the front and dictated terms with an opening half-mile in 46 and change. Expect him to be prominent in the Belmont, too, either setting or pressing slower splits going a marathon distance.
Value: Don't look for him to be 23-1, as he was in the Preakness, not after such a fast runner-up finish behind such an accomplished rival in Lookin At Lucky. That race established him as one of the better 3-year-olds in the land. Given his 1-for-7 record and his risk of bouncing in the Belmont, horseplayers are advised to shoot for odds of 5-1 or higher.
Fly Down
Strengths: His first two victories came at the expense of First Dude, at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old and at Gulfstream Park first out this year. Of course, those races took on added significance in the wake of First Dude's huge race in the Preakness. After failing to fire in the Louisiana Derby, Fly Down rebounded with a breakthrough effort to win the Dwyer, drawing away from odds-on Drosselmeyer through a solid last three-eighths that left the impression he can handle more ground. He appears to love this track - as did his sire and broodmare sire ? and most of his rivals have never run over "Big Sandy." If he merely runs back to his last race, that gives him a big chance. If he improves - a perfectly plausible scenario for a son of Mineshaft making just his sixth start - the others may be running for second money.
Weaknesses: Though fears are somewhat alleviated thanks to a 2-0 record against First Dude, this will be his first foray into Grade 1 company, so he is light on seasoning compared to four rivals who contested one of the Triple Crown's first two legs. Along the same lines, he picks up 10 pounds, and the Derby-Preakness runners have already shouldered 126.
Strategy: In all three of his wins, Fly Down has shown the ability to gain ground quickly on the far turn, where most Belmont Stakes are lost and won. This ability to accelerate to the prestretch call may enable him to get the jump on stablemate Ice Box, the morning-line favorite.
Value: He is listed as the third choice at 9-2 and would be an exceptional overlay if he goes off at that price, considering he has already beaten the second choice twice. More realistically, expect him to go off somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-1.
Game On Dude
Strengths: Few trainer-jockey combinations are hotter than Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia. Their 33 percent win rate the past year (47 for 142 through May 31) includes the Preakness Stakes with Lookin At Lucky. Game On Dude's improving pattern includes a daylight victory in the Grade 3 Lone Star Derby in his last race May 8. That was his second start since moving to the Baffert stable; he is a better horse since changing trainers and enters the Belmont on an upward pattern. The gelding continues to train forwardly, including a sharp six-furlong gate work Monday at Santa Anita in 1:12.40.
Weaknesses: It is uncertain if Game On Dude is good enough. He finished nowhere in the Florida Derby and nowhere in the Derby Trial before he met a dreadful field at Lone Star. Furthermore, his career-best 94 Beyer Speed Figure falls short of par. The past decade, the lowest winning figure in the Belmont was 99. During that time, every Belmont winner previously earned 97 or higher. Young jockey Garcia is a rising star but has never ridden at Belmont.
Strategy: Bold strategy is required. Game On Dude has speed and will be forwardly placed in a field short on pace; First Dude is the only other front-runner. Game On Dude figures to be positioned in the first flight. To win, he must put away his pace rival and open up on the closers. That means committing early by making the lead from the gate, or pulling the trigger on the far turn, even with another three furlongs to the finish.
Value: Recent history suggests there are no toss-outs in the Belmont. Game On Dude is neither fast nor classy enough, similar to Summer Bird ($25.80) in 2009, Da' Tara ($79) in 2008, Birdstone ($74) in 2004, Sarava ($142.50) in 2002, and Commendable ($39.60) in 2000. Considering the improving pattern and hot trainer-jockey combo for Game On Dude, 10-1 or higher might be good enough.
Ice Box
Strengths: Proved he was a major player in the division with his huge performance in the Kentucky Derby, a race he arguably could have won with a luckier trip. Like the fact that he's been freshened since the race, and that recent bullet half-mile drill was pretty much a carbon copy of his final Derby prep, an indication he's going into the race in similarly top condition. Ice Box is bred as well as anybody in the field to stay the distance being out of a mare, Spice Island, who was a Grade 2 winner going 1 1/2 miles.
Weaknesses: Although he zipped through another fast workout earlier this week, this horse has had a pretty one-dimensional running style of late, which means he could be at the mercy of a slow and uncontested pace. He also finished off the board in his only previous start at Belmont Park when showing early speed and fading late, albeit at a time when he obviously was not nearly as sharp or experienced as he is today.
Strategy: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. It wouldn't make sense to change this guy's running style at this point of the game, after he was able to rate far back and make one sustained run to win the Florida Derby and then finish second in the Kentucky Derby.
Value: He was 20-1 in the Florida Derby and 11-1 at Churchill Downs, but the cat is out of the bag now. In light of his well-documented eventful trip in the Derby, he figures to be overbet and undervalued as the favorite in the final leg of the Triple Crown.
Interactif
Strengths: He won a couple of graded stakes last year, and has run competitively in stakes this year. In March, he came within a half-length of eventual Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita. Even his effort in the Grade 1 Blue Grass was a respectable fourth-place finish behind Stately Victor, Paddy O'Prado, and First Dude. The form from that race was been validated, first when Paddy O'Prado was third in the Derby and later when First Dude ran second in the Preakness.
Weaknesses: He gives the appearance of a turf/synthetic performer. Although he won a maiden race on dirt last summer at Monmouth Park, he did so by just a head, and was later eighth in the Grade 2 Sanford at Saratoga. Since that time trainer Todd Pletcher has raced him exclusively on turf and synthetic surfaces. He even bypassed a chance to run him in the Kentucky Derby, although the horse had the graded stakes earnings to gain entry into the oversubscribed race. He also has not run for nearly two months. Being so fresh, he might become too aggressive in the early stages of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont, a concern for a colt winless beyond 1 1/16 miles.
Strategy: A stalker, he figures to be racing anywhere from two to five lengths off the leaders, depending on the pace. In light of his inexperience on dirt, if he can find a position toward the outside, away from the dirt being kicked back by the leaders, his chances of firing on dirt would improve.
Value: Even with Pletcher in his corner, his inexperience on dirt will likely result in this horse starting as a longshot. For those with faith that he can run as well, if not better, on dirt than he has been on turf and synthetic tracks, he will likely start at odds of approximately 15-1.
Make Music For Me
Strengths: Showed genuine ability finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby after a very wide move on the far turn, and the fact that he finished ahead of no fewer than 16 opponents is very much to his credit. He also showed talent last year, hitting the board three times in graded stakes behind Lookin At Lucky, the champion 2-year-old and Preakness winner, beaten an average of only one length in those meetings. Finally, he has yet to encounter a distance that has proven to be beyond his scope.
Weaknesses: His big effort in the Derby might have been aided by the sloppy track, since he has a wet-track pedigree. His good try in Louisville was certainly enhanced by the fast fractions that contributed significantly toward setting up his late run. That was just the kind of pace he is not likely to get this time in the Belmont. And for all of his close finishes behind Lookin At Lucky, and his fine try in the Derby, the fact remains that he has actually won only 1 of 9 starts, that being a listed stakes on the turf.
Strategy: He is a closer, so the faster the early pace, the better for him. But he did show in his lone win in his first start this year that he doesn't have to be that far out of it early to be effective. Given the projection of a moderate Belmont pace at best, look for him to try and gain a more forward early position.
Value: He was 30-1 in the Derby, but his good finish and the smaller Belmont field ensures he will be somewhere between 10-1 and 15-1 this time, which is still decent. Of course, he would be more playable with a stronger early pace scenario. But he still should be included underneath in exotic wagers.
Spangled Star
Strengths: His Beyer Figures have improved with every start at 3, peaking in his most recent outing with a career-best 87 for his third-place finish in the Withers. Has some versatility, having run well from both on and off the pace, and the lack of a lot of pace players in this year's Belmont could find him close up from the outset. Top-flight connections of Rick Dutrow and Garrett Gomez always a plus.
Weaknesses: Despite the fact he's coming off a career topper in the Withers, he will still have to improve plenty from a Beyer standpoint to be in a league with the major players. The distance is also a question mark -- he has yet to race beyond 1 1/16 miles. The fact he remains eligible for an entry-level race does not bode well for a horse stepping into Grade 1 company.
Strategy: Has shown some early foot in several of his races and there might be some inclination to put him into the race early with the hopes of getting a jump on some of the major contenders.
Value: If you're looking for a bomber, this is your horse. Figures to be one of, if not the longest price on the board. Still, it makes sense not to settle for anything less than about 40-1.
Stately Victor
Strengths: This list is short. In nine career starts, Stately Victor has run only one outstanding race. That was on the Polytrack surface at Keeneland, where he won the Blue Grass by more than four lengths at odds of 40-1. While his eighth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby was merely average, there is some solace - five of the last 10 Belmonts were won by horses coming out of the Derby.
Weaknesses: What is Stately Victor doing here? His four previous starts on dirt produced little of consequence - eighth in the Derby and runner-up in a maiden sprint at age 2. Even his Blue Grass must be viewed with skepticism; he previously had done nothing to suggest imminent Grade 1 victory. His win in the Blue Grass looks like another unfathomable synthetic surface upset that undermines basic handicapping principles. Even if Stately Victor reproduced his 94 Beyer Speed Figure on synthetic, it probably would not be good enough to win the Belmont.
Strategy: There is no secret strategy with a deep closer such as Stately Victor. The only thing that a jockey can do with a no-speed late-runner is allow him to settle, get him comfortable, and hope the speed backs up. Stately Victor will be positioned in the rear flight and try to win it from behind. Good luck.
Value: The past 10 years, it has been unwise to eliminate no-hope outsiders in the Belmont - five of the last 10 winners returned $25 or more. Notwithstanding recent Belmont history, little in Stately Victor's past performances suggests he can win a legitimate Grade 1 over a dirt surface. Perhaps at 20-1 or higher, he is worth a flyer based on the chaotic nature of the Belmont. Anything less would qualify as a severe underlay.
Stay Put
Strengths: Consistency. Three-time winner has never run poorly in a seven-start career. You know what you're getting here. Also, Stay Put has made forward progress throughout every one of his races. Even in his pair of fifths in graded stakes at Fair Grounds, he was picking off horses through the stretch run. Not likely to be a dead closer going 1 1/2 miles and has the sort of grinding, keeps-on-coming style (and pedigree) that should play well at the marathon distance.
Weaknesses: We don't know if he has the quality to win a race like the Belmont. Pace and racing luck were against him in his two stakes tries, but a really good horse with more brilliance might well have cracked the top three in those spots. He's in with other staying types who might be finishing just as well as him.
Strategy: Came from the back of bulky fields at Fair Grounds, but when in a paceless race at Churchill Downs with a shorter field, he stuck close to the leaders. If front-runners here are walking, he won't be far from the lead. If the pace is legit, he will be 10 lengths off the lead coming into the far turn.
Value: It exists here. He's 20-1 on the morning line, the same price as Dave in Dixie, and not far off Spangled Star. Really? While winning might be a stretch, Stay Put could easily add value to trifecta and superfecta wagers.
Uptowncharlybrown
Strengths: Finished only a little more than two lengths behind Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby after a troubled trip. He comes into this off the best performance of his career, rallying from well off the pace in the Lexington Stakes to finish a gaining third to Exhi, who has since won another stakes, his third in a row. Makes his first start for a trainer who is very good at bringing horses into big spots off freshenings, and the positional speed he showed in the Tampa Bay Derby suggests he could be prominent early here, with a moderate to slow pace expected.
Weaknesses: His big effort in the Lexington came on Keeneland's Polytrack, and it's difficult to predict how that form will transfer to dirt in the Belmont Stakes. He has yet to even start in a Grade 1 race and is 0 for 3 in races around two turns, while 2 for 2 in sprint races. That, and his miler's pedigree, suggests that the 1 1/2-mile distance of the Belmont could be well beyond his reach.
Strategy: Despite the fact that he came from next to last in a field of 12 in the Lexington to be third, it would be a surprise, given the scarcity of speed in this event, if he wasn't a prominent early factor here. He might even lay as close as third in the early stages behind First Dude and Interactif, but how close he is early depends entirely on how fast the pace is.
Value: The highest price he has been so far in his five-race career was 4-1 in the Lexington. But he is facing a much better group Saturday, and concerns over how far he really wants to go could put him in the neighborhood of 12-1 to 15-1. If you think the pace will be so slow that it might carry this one deep into the race, then he could be used underneath in exotic wagers. Otherwise, he is a bit of a stretch.
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solita bella presentazione della corsa del DRF, io intorno @ 3/1 metto sicuro su Ice Box...no way
) e Bill Mott festeggiano.
